Data Analysis: Understanding Marth & Lucina’s position in the metagame.

It’s the age-old debate: Where should Lucina be placed on the Tier List? Next to Marth, above, under? If Marth reaches high tier, should she naturally follow in his position in spite of lacking the same results?

Today, I’ll be looking at this through data analysis. As per usual, my data comes from my tournament database, linked here with an explanation of the methodology for character scoring:

https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/

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OrionRank 2017 – Late December-Umebura Japan Major Top 25, 2017.

Hello, all! Freezie & I are here to present the May update to OrionRank 2017! There are a ton of surprises in this early-mid year iteration. Some players have fallen off, some have gained traction, others exploded onto the scene. With career revivals, Japan’s visits, and some struggling to keep up, the mid-year ranking was sure to be something different. This is a new era of Smash 4, and we were happy to try and rank it!

METHODOLOGY

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1LU7lhE0UKk-ZusCAu2PMPr1loGCpLhTAkiDMggJ0Fs4/edit

Intro & Outro written by BarnardsLoop, player descriptions made by freeziebeatz, images made by freeziebeatz. Edited by BarnardsLoop & freeziebeatz.

Without further ado…

HONORABLE MENTIONS

30) ikep

ikep

Ikep has shown that he carries a lot of potential this year to be a threat in the scene. While he did not enter Japan’s major tournament this year, he was a part of the NicoNico Tokaigi Cup which was a qualifier for OrionRank 2017. Ikep took both Sumabato Tokaigi Qualifier and Umebura 26 beating players like 9B, Kameme, Rizeasu, Shuton, and Some in the process.

On top of that, he has made Top 8 for four other tournaments he has entered this year and has also beaten Chanshu, Earth, and Masha.  Ikep took the 30th spot so far this year by only a few points and the question is will be able to retain it by the end of the year without coming to American majors.  

 

29) HIKARU

HIKARU

HIKARU recently was named the 10th best player in Japan. This year he has consistently been playing Top 16 at Japanese nationals and has taken smaller tournaments like Sumabato x Cyclops #1 and Shulla Bra X. His Civil War run is what sets him up as a Top 25 candidate where he made Top 8 and defeated strong players like ESAM, Konga, Mr.R, tsu, and VoiD on his way there. On top of that, he has accumulated great wins in Japan over 9B, Chanshu, Edge, ikep, Kome, and Nietono.

HIKARU has definitely been shown to struggle with Rosalina as it is one of DK’s worst matchups and he has not shown an answer for it. He is currently 0-3 with Kirihara and failed to beat Abadango’s Rosa at Civil War.  He has only Top 8 two Japanese nationals and has failed to take wins off of Japan’s bigger names still. He also failed to place high at UJM and lost to Raito and Rizeasu for 25th place. Until HIKARU makes bigger waves in Japan, he may be surpassed by his fellow competitors.  But for now, HIKARU takes 29th for the year.  

 

28) Ned

Ned

Ned has taken quite a few names this year and has been establishing himself as a top player. He has not been able to find his footing at supermajors and has been upset by the likes of Cacogen, Jan, falln, and Konga. Otherwise, he has been doing great and beating top players at majors such as CaptainZack, Larry Lurr, and VoiD at Midwest Mayhem Saga as well as Fatality at Frostbite. He took Midwest Mayhem 7 defeating Zinoto twice and placed very well at Midwest Mayhem 8 which included taking a set off of ZeRo.

One weakness Ned has had this year is against Rosalina. He lost to 3 different qualified Rosa players and has not beaten one yet. Ned does have the wins to show he can be a solid competitor for Top 25 though but until he gets solid placings at supermajors he will falter behind the players who do.  

 

27) DNG | Kameme

Kameme

Kameme has had a very up and down year. He hasn’t been placing well at supermajors and has struggled to get Top 8 at most tournaments. He has recently switched mains from Megaman to Sheik and took Top 8 his first major since Smashdown World. Kameme still obtained some pretty great wins over Abadango, MKLeo, Nietono, Ranai, Tsu, and Zinoto. He has been struggling with Bayonetta shown by his 0-3 record with 9B and 0-2 record with CaptainZack as well as a 0-1 record with ikep and has been using multiple characters to figure out which works the best.

He also has some strange losses to Lea, NAKAT, and Xzax and is currently he is 3-2 in a rivalry with Shuton. Kameme can still make it too Top 25 with his switch to Sheik which may bring him back to a higher standing as shown with his recent success in Japan.

 

26) Earth

Earth

Earth had a slow start in 2017 and hasn’t been able to place highly at majors. He started picking himself back up in February and has been slowly switching to Corrin as his dual main rather than his secondary. He has some great results and wins over Abadango, KEN, komorikiri, VoiD, and has a dominating 3-0 record over Ranai. But at the same time, Earth has some not great results not making Top 16 at a couple of tournaments and a couple of bad losses from Kare~, Paru, and Gungnir.

He has also had a Bayo problem being 1-4 vs 9B, 1-2 vs ikep, and 0-1 vs CaptainZack this year. Earth had a solid case for Top 25 but in the end he was outclassed by others.

 

TOP 25

25) tsu

Tsu

Tsu has been quite a wild card this year. He started off with some respectable results in Japan taking 9th and 7th at SGC and Sumabato 15 respectively. He also took some solid wins off of Brood, Raito, and Some. He then completely bustered at Umebura Tokaigi Qualifier taking 33rd and losing to Kisha and Lea, a Greninja player who has been giving him a bit of trouble as of recent. Going through the last chance qualifier, tsu ended up going on a monster run at NicoNico Tokaigi Cup foreshadowing what was to come at Frostbite. He took 4th beating 9B, Kameme, Kirihara and Mr.R.

At Frostbite we really saw tsu shine, placing 2nd and having what is considered one of the best sets so far in 2017 in Grand Finals vs ZeRo after beating him in Winner’s Finals. At Frostbite he took sets off of other big names like Kameme, Salem, Tweek, and VoiD.

He placed poorly at FPS2 ending up at 25th. Tsu was sent to losers by Cashmere which showed his reoccurring Falcon problem and was eliminated by dyr. He redeemed himself with a Top 16 placing at Civil War Saga and beat falln and Zinoto in the process.

He did not enter much throughout April but we see him failing to place Top 32 at Umebura Japan Major and losing to Lea again along with Pichi, one of Japan’s best Falcons. Tsu has also claimed wins on Abadango, KEN, Shuton, and T this season at locals. Until he figures out his Falcon problem and polishes his Ryu as a solid secondary for his more troublesome match ups, tsu can easily stumble from the high seat he is in now and not end in the Top 25 by the end of the year. Having low points can easily harm his ranking more than the success his high points bring.

 

24) EG | Zinoto

Zinoto.png

Zinoto is still following his trend from last year. He has not been able to make big waves at supermajors but continues to thrive in the Midwest region. He does have some pretty good wins this year over Ally, komorikiri, Salem, Samsora and WaDi but Zinoto has accumulated some strange losses too. He has lost to Brood, Manny, and Sonido this year and at this rate I wouldn’t be surprised if there will be more.

His record in the Midwest is still impeccable though. He has placed Top 2 at every Midwest Mayhem this year and made Top 8 at Frostbite.  Zinoto also did pretty well at his other major tournament, 2GGC Midwest Mayhem Saga making Top 16.  For now 24th seems appropriate for Zinoto until his record at supermajors improve.  With CEO coming up, it will be interesting to see if he can pull off his best tournament run yet again.

 

23) Choco

Choco

Choco has done amazingly well this year and has placed 3rd at 4/6 of the tournaments he entered so far. He has also been placing Top 16 in every tournament he’s entered. He took 3rd at Umebura Japan Major losing to MKLeo twice but took sets off of 9B, Earth, Edge, Nietono, and Ranai. Aside from that, Choco also has victories over Abadango, Kirihara, Kome, Pichi, Some, T, and Umeki.

Choco does not enter much but he is no slouch. He has been struggling with 9B though, being 1-3 in sets this year and finally overcoming him at Umebura Japan Major. Choco is definitely a top player in Japan and a top 3 ZSS player. Until he comes to the US it will be hard to gauge where he stands with the rest of the top talent above him.

 

22) LG | Abadango

Abadango

Let’s go over the bad things this year for Abadango. He is right now 0-5 vs MKLeo and 0-3 vs Marss. He is having a bit of a Bayonetta problem losing to Black Yoshi, CaptainZack and JK so far this year. His results in Japan are a lot more consistent than last year but Frostbite was not great for him . He still has great supermajor results and wins over Elegant, HIKARU, KEN, komorikiri, Ranai, Salem, Shuton, Tsu, Tweek, and Zinoto. While this is a respectable group of wins, he has failed to take any major wins on the big US players this year that would boost him higher.  Abadango has decided to change mains to Bayonetta due to his recent fallbacks. Let’s see how that goes for him.

 

21) Samsora

Samsora

Samsora’s overall performance in 2017 has been pretty solid. Genesis 4 wasn’t too hot of a performance for him but he has made up for it through Top 8ing nationals and taking 5th at CEO Dreamland. His placements for the 2GG Circuit have been respectable taking 9th and 17th for Midwest Mayhem Saga and Civil War Saga respectively. Samsora has taken a lot of big names beating ESAM, and Mew2King at SC LXIX, CaptainZack 4 times at 2 regionals, ANTi and 6WX twice, and VoiD at CEO Dreamland. He has shown improvement with the Meta Knight match up only losing so far to Ito and Ac but defeating DSS and ANTi. While Samsora said we will be practicing Bayonetta as a secondary it doesn’t seem as if he has needed to use her with his rapid improvement with Peach. With CEO Dreamland being his greatest success so far this year, I am excited to see where he goes from here.

 

20) CLG | VoiD

VoiD.png

While VoiD has not been consistently getting Top 8 at tournaments, he still is doing fairly well. He is still one of the top players in SoCal and barely losing to anyone below him there. VoiD has a slight rivalry with MKLeo being 2-3 in sets and a couple of Top 20 wins on Abadango, CaptainZack, and ESAM as well. The reason VoiD is so low down is his lack of a large number of strong wins on his resume so far.  His placements may be great but until he starts taking more sets from stronger players, he will be stuck here at #20.  

 

19) MVG | Salem

Salem

Salem has partially continued with his tournament trends from last year. He is still underperforming at supermajors and ended up placing 25th at the two that have occurred this year.

His placements at majors are better than they were in 2016, with a strong performance at Frostbite and passable run at Frame Perfect. His run at CEO showed shades of his major runs in 2016, however. Despite that, he still has great wins though over Earth, ESAM, komorikiri, Nairo, Samsora and Shuto and. He even beat Kome with his Samus at Frame Perfect Series 2. Salem is still a strong player who deserves his Top 20 spot.

 

18) Fatality

Fatality

Fatality has become a fatal threat in 2017. Taking 2nd at one of the most stacked Smash 4 tournaments so far this year, the Falcon main now stands over wins on CaptainZack, Kirihara, Kome, komorikiri, Nairo, T, and Trela. Unfortunately, his other major placements do not line up with Civil War.

His second highest major placement being 17th and his lowest being 33rd makes you question whether Civil War was a fluke of greatness. Fatality still has great results in his region.

He does not go to many nationals, but has attended 5 regionals in the Southeast this year. Fatality and ScAtt have been fighting for the number one spot on the Georgia PR and he is currently 4-3 in sets against him.

Recently Fatality went to France to compete in MARS 2017 and placed second taking two very close losses to Glutonny, one of France’s premier players. Other big wins Fatality has had so far this year are on Javi, Locus, and Ryuga. Fatality has shown that he has the potential to go far in a bracket, but he will not be able to title himself as a top 10 player if he cannot consistently pull off good runs in major tournaments and make Top 8/16s.

 

17) Ranai

Ranai

Ranai has been a lot more active than he ever was this year. He has still shown to be a top player taking wins from komorikiri, Javi, Larry Lurr, Marss, Mr.R, and Salem but has been quite inconsistent though in terms of placements. He has been taking losses from players like Kisha and Tosshi and is 1-4 against komorikiri and 0-3 against Earth.

He has bit of a Mewtwo problem this year losing to Abadango, Rich Brown and WaDi at major tournaments but has shown DLC characters like Cloud and Bayonetta won’t hold him back.  Ranai is still proving that Villager is a great character who can hold his own in today’s meta and takes a solid 17th for this year so far.  

 

16) PG | ESAM

ESAM

ESAM had been having a great year compared to last year. He has secured great wins over his demon Ally, Earth, Kameme, and Larry Lurr. On top of that, he is 3-0 over Marss and has been having a bit of a rivalry with VoiD recently being 1-1. He also had one with Samsora ealier in the year and is currently 1-2 in sets with him this year.

He still is having trouble with beating ZeRo and has a lot of trouble with Rosalina being 0-3 against Dabuz and Kirihara. ESAM is a solid Top 20 player right now but won’t be Top 10 until he gets over his weaknesses. Maybe his Samus can help as it has been better than ever this year, defeating players such as Locus and Ally at the national level.

 

15) Shuton

Shuton

It was debated whether Shuton would live up to the hype once he came to the United States to compete and place highly. Boy did he live up the hype and more. Shuton has proved to be a top threat and able to keep up and even surpass some of the top players today. Shuton’s worst placement so far has been 13th at Civil War Saga which even then is better than most high level players.

He has accumulated a bunch of wins on North America players such as Ally, ANTi, Dabuz, MKLeo, Salem, Trela, and VoiD during his time in the US or at NicoNico Tokaigi Cup. He also has won over most of Japan’s top players like 9B, Choco, Earth, Edge, Kameme, KEN, Kirihara, komorikiri, and tsu. Shuton has struggled a bit with Bayonetta and has had losses to 9B, Hiro, ikep, and Salem this year but has still shown that Olimar can be a viable character in today’s meta.

 

14) SHI-G | 9B

9B

9B has low key been gathering amazing results in Japan and the US. He has unfailingly placed Top 16 out of the 18 tournaments he has entered besides Sumabato 17 where he just fell short and obtained 17th. At Genesis 4 and Civil War Saga he has placed 13th and has defeated FOW, Mr.E, Ranai, and Rich Brown at these events.

On top of that, he has defeated a lot of Japan’s best this year including Choco (3-1), Earth (4-1), Edge (1-1), HIKARU (1-1), Kameme (3-0), Kirihara (1-0), komorikiri (1-0), Raito (2-0), Shuton (1-1), T (1-0), and tsu (1-1). While 9B has improved a lot since last year, he still needs to be able to secure wins on top American players to be ranked even higher than his peers.  

 

13) DNL | Marss

Marss

Marss had a bit of a shaky start this year but recently has been doing very well. He is still extremely dominant in NE and hasn’t dropped any of the 8 NE tournaments he has entered and is dominating Abadango with a set count of 3-0.

He has wins over ANTi, Kameme, Locus, Mr.E, Salem, and Tweek as well but still has his own weaknesses with the player giving him trouble who’s ESAM, currently 0-3 in sets. Marss has the potential for being a Top 10 player but has failed to secure wins from players above him as of it. If he wants to succeed he needs to secure those wins and continue his trend of high placements

 

12) CaptainZack

CaptainZack

CaptainZack has made a huge improvement this year since UGC Open. At both supermajors he took 4th place and now has various wins over top players like Abadango, ANTi, Earth, Kameme, Marss, and Mr.R. CaptainZack has also had many other successes in majors and nationals Top 16ing most that he enters and taking names such as Kirihara, Locus, Mr.E, Ranai, and WaDi. Locally in Louisiana, he has been struggling to take sets from Samsora and is now 1-4 against him and will most likely be ranked behind him on their PR.

He has also mentioned that Ness is a struggling match up for him which is evident by him being upset by SS at Midwest Mayhem Saga. While not upset too often, he has suffered from some losses to lower ranked players. For example, he has lost to Shoyo James who had a fantastic run at Midwest Mayhem 6 and lost a close 3-2 game against Some at Frostbite.

Recently he has been breaking out his Wii Fit Trainer for the Bayonetta match up as he believes that she does quite well against Bayo. This might be coming back to haunt him after dropping a set to Pink Fresh at Royal Flush only winning one game with her. Overall CaptainZack has had a very strong presence in the smash scene this year and looking to be a Top 10 player. While his record looks great, he still needs a couple more top placings and top 5 wins to solidify him among the big names in smash.

 

11) MSF | Larry Lurr

LarryLurr

Larry Lurr has been the losers run master this year, which isn’t entirely a good thing. Being upset early by Chag in G4 and FOW in Civil War, Larry went on some great loser runs at these supermajors. In G4 he beat Kuro, Xaltis, dyr, JK , k9sbruce and MVD but eventually lost to Ranai for 13th and in Civil War he lost to FOW and went off to beat DKWill, WaDi, Xzax, Mr.E, komorikiri, and 9B and then being eliminated by Kirihara.

He was also upset at CEO Dreamland losing to Raito in losers. On top of that Larry has beaten CaptainZack, Dabuz, ESAM, VoiD, and Zinoto this year. His beef with Mr.R is backed up with his set count with him this year (1-2), which was achieved at NH Smash 3, though this rivalry has fizzed out a bit. Larry has great placing and wins but just falls short on a Top 10 spot at this current moment.  

 

10) KEN

KEN

KEN has shown to be an absolute monster with Sonic in Japan and has taken first on their PR. He has been for the most part dominant in Japan and has taken sets from Abadango, Choco, Dabuz, ESAM, Kameme, komorikiri, MKLeo, and Ranai. He is also 5-0 against 9B’s Bayo.

He is still keeping up with Nairo and continuing their rivalry with a 2-3 record this year. While taking a low placement at Frostbite losing to Dabuz and Ally, he will be back in the US for Nairo Saga. His performance there will determine if he deserves this Top 10 spot he has been given for this year so far.  

 

9) P1 | Tweek

Tweek

Tweek has been a little inconsistent this year but has had an overall improvement with dual maining Cloud and Donkey Kong. He had an amazing start to the year but started getting shoddy placements when he hit Frostbite and has taken some questionable losses to Blank, Charliedaking, Eon, ImHip, Kome and Myran.

That doesn’t stop him from having some amazing wins over Marss, Salem, VoiD, WaDi, and ZeRo. On top of that, he has a great record on komorikiri (3-1) and MKLeo (3-1) this year. While Tweek has some consistency issues, his highs really do outweigh his lows and he has earned his Top 10 spot for this third of the year.  

 

8) Kirihara

Kirihara

Kirihara is a player who we listed as a Hidden Boss last year who has exceeded our expectations. He has not failed to make Top 16 yet and in Japan has made Top 8 in all of the tournaments he has entered. In Japan he has taken sets off of Abadango, Choco, Earth, 3-0 HIKARU, Pichi, Raito, tsu, and You3. His performances in America has been better than some Top 10 players today taking Frame Perfect Series 2 while beating ZeRo twice, placing 5th at Civil War Saga, and 13th at Frostbite.

He has claimed big wins on US players this year and has 3-0 ESAM. On top of that, Kirihara has taken sets from KEN, komorikiri, Larry Lurr, Locus, Mr.E, Ned, Ryo, Ryuga, tyroy, and ZD. He surprisingly has been having minor issues with Rain (0-2) and Ri-ma (0-2) this year and Umeki is his worse loss so far. Kirihara takes a deserving 8th so far this season with his wins and placements plus already taking a major tournament which most players can’t even claim this year.

 

7) C9 | Ally

Ally

Ally has been having a pretty good year so far. He has 2 strong rivalries going. One with ZeRo (2-2) and one with Locus (2-1). He has had complete reign over Canada, including being 4-0 over Blacktwins and taking every Canadian event he is at. He has a solid rack of wins on top players such as Abadango, ANTi, CaptainZack, KEN, Kirihara, Ranai and VoiD.

He has had some trouble with a couple of players so far and has not been able to take a set off of MKLeo (0-3)and is also 0-2 versus tyroy’s Bayo this year as well. Ally has only had 2 not so great losses this year. One is against Shoyo James’ Luigi at Midwest Mayhem 6. The other is his infamous loss against Komota at Frostbite. Also, he lost to ESAM’s  Samus, a player he has been quite dominant over, at Civil War. But other than that Ally is definitely in position to be a potential Top 5 player by the end of the year.

 

6) 2GG | komorikiri

komorikiri

Komorikiri has racked up quite the amount of strong wins this year. He has beaten Abadango, CaptainZack, Dabuz, Fatality, Tweek, and Zinoto and is also 4-1 against Ranai. This year we have seen a rise of dominance in SoCal because of his 2GG sponsorship, but a bit of a falling off in Japan where he used to be taking every event.

Tweek (1-3) and MKLeo (0-3) have been giving him the most trouble this year and he is oddly 0-2 against Eon, a SoCal Fox main.  Komorikiri definitely has the resume for a Top 10 position, but with recently falling off a bit from his strong performance earlier in the year, will he be able to keep it up before the year ends?

 

5) Mr.R

Mr.R

Mr.R has the second most consistent weighted average in Smash 4 this year. He is still reigning over Europe and is 5-0 against S-1 and he is also 4-0 over Nairo and 3-0 over Nietono. Mr.R trained in Japan for a while and has wins over players like Choco and 9B but took losses to Ron, Ranai, HIKARU, and Tsu.

Mr.R has also been to the Middle East and performed well there as well. Mr.R has also beaten CaptainZack, Dabuz, KEN, and Larry Lurr. He has been having trouble with ZeRo but seen at Royal Flush he is slowly catching up to him (unfortunately for Mr.R, Royal Flush is not counting for this ranking due to it being past Umebura Japan Major). Mr.R is right now at a well deserved #5th and if he continues his trend of placements, he will be climbing even higher.  Someone sponsor this milk first man already.  

4) NRG | Nairo

Nairo

Nairo is still going strong in 2017 and while he hasn’t Top 8 a supermajor, his results have been amazing otherwise. He has a bunch of strong victories on Abadango, Ally, Earth, Ranai and Shuton and has also had a time period of freeing up Japan with the Tokaigi Cup tournaments beating HIKARU and Kirihara as well.

Nairo has been having a mini-rivalry with MKLeo (2-2) and has a continuing rivalry with KEN being 3-2 over him this year. Nairo has had problems with ZeRo and Mr.R this year being 0-3 against both of them and his worse losses are Fatality and Locus at Civil War which aren’t that bad of losses to start with.  Nairo has recently been relying on his Lucina more in doubles as well as singles and we will see if she is the answer to his Mr.R and ZeRo problem.  

 

3) RNG | Dabuz

Dabuz

Dabuz has the most consistent player weighted average in 2017 so far. While in the beginning, he was a little discouraged with Rosa, he definitely has proven himself as a Top 5 player this year. This is especially due to him winning and not dropping a set during Civil War.

He has a lot of big sets over Ally, ANTi, CaptainZack, Fatality, Glutonny, Kameme, KEN, Kirihara, Larry Lurr, VoiD, Zinoto, and wins over many more potential Top 100 players. He’s had a bit of trouble against ZeRo (0-2), Nairo (0-2), and komorikiri (0-2) but has done great against Salem (2-0), Marss (2-0) and ESAM (3-0). His only bad loss this year is against DSS at Genesis Saga but has improved drastically since then.

 

2) FOX MVG | MKLeo

MKLeo

MKLeo freed up Japan recently, taking both Umebura Japan Major and KSB and taking sets from Choco, Kirihara, Edge and KEN. On top of that, he is now 5-0 over Abadango and 3-0 over komorikiri. MKLeo is still dominating Mexico as well but others may be starting to catch up evident to losing a set to Javi at The Arena.

MKLeo, as mentioned earlier, is 3-0 over Ally and has taken 1 of the 2 super majors this year so far. He did have a rough patch at Civil War due to illness but no Johns. He took losses to Meteor, a SoCal Sonic main and Ac, the SoCal Meta Knight/Falco main and obtained his worst placement yet in his career, 65th.

He has issues against ZeRo this year (0-5), Tweek(1-3) and Ryu this year losing to Trela and takera (though takera was after UJM so it won’t count). MKLeo is currently rivals with VoiD being 3-2 so far in their set count and also has a bit of a rivalry going with Nairo being 2-2 in their set count. MKLeo sticks to his words of being a Top 3 player, but has to overcome his biggest issue to be number 1, and that’s defeating number 1.  

 

  1. TSM | ZeRo

ZeRo

You all saw this coming.  ZeRo has been on a tear throughout 2017 taking 4/7 of the major tournaments he has been to. A lot of top players have been struggling to keep up but he has bled and has lost to 7 new people this year. Three of these players hail from Japan in which ZeRo has lost to Brood at G4, Tsu at Frostbite, and Kirihara at FPS2 twice. Civil War became ZeRo’s worst placement to date and lost to Xzax, a player ZeRo has mentioned to give him trouble when he lived in SoCal, and Luhtie, a ZSS main from the Southwest.

This does not take much away from this man as he has dominating records this year over Top 20 players. ZeRo is currently 3-0 over Nairo, 3-0 over Larry Lurr, 3-0 over ESAM, 5-0 over MKLeo, 4-1 over Tweek, and 4-1 over Mr.R. On top of that, he earlier in the year dominated Cloud players. Though this has been changing as ZeRo has taken losses to Ned’s and now Mr.R’s Cloud in the past month.

ZeRo and Ally still have their rivalry going this year as well and are currently 2-2 this year. With ZeRo now using Lucina against him, it will be interesting to see how this match up progresses and how Ally adapts. ZeRo is still quite obviously number 1 right now, but the gap is coming closer.

 

PLAYER STATS

Region Diversity Chart

Character Diversity Graph

Character Diversity Tier

There are currently 189 qualifiers for OrionRank 2017 and there are some interesting stats that arise from this.  Currently Diddy Kong is the most represented character through representation, appearing 22 times throughout all of the players.  Sheik is the second most common while Cloud and Bayonetta tie for third.  Characters like Bowser Jr, Dr.Mario, Jigglypuff, Lucas, Mii Brawler, Mii Gunner, Mii Swordfighter, and Palutena still have no users.  Florida is the most qualified region with 28 qualified players.  This followed behind SoCal with 21 and Kanto with 20.

 

DOWNWIND – ANTi, VoiD, Abadango

While creating OrionRank 2016, the biggest surprises were generally players that ranked as high as they did – Salem, Zinoto, Tyrant, K9, etc. A lot of this was due to regional biases.

It was not common to have players that appeared to be too low by themselves, only for players to be too low while another player was above them – e.g., Salem beating VoiD despite a worse major record. These flaws were largely corrected due to categorization scaling for scoring. However, we’re still left with major outliers.

Because this is largely based on set histories, all of these players tend to suffer. They lose a large amount of potential points to gain if they go out early enough in tournament. This is precisely what occurred with VoiD, for example – who’s 33rd at Civil War was extremely prohibitive in his ability to score high.

Abadango himself has carried solid placements, but a lackluster set history. This idea has always been subject to debate, but a set-history-based set will inevitably favor better set histories at its core, resulting in occasional odd discrepancies between raw placements.

9B, for example, placed lower at both supermajors than Aba – but ranked higher. This is in part because of his exceptional performance at Umebura Japan Major and a strong bout of regional performances that include a number of sets on players ranked in his general area, where Aba has failed to accumulate the same amount of traction.

For further doubting, I think Abadango himself recognizes his set history this year – as he’s decided to start utilizing Bayonetta more, a common reaction to him struggling in tournament.

ANTi – far and away the worst dropoff this year – was ranked in the mid-30s. I doubt this is totally controversial, as he’s struggled at most levels of play throughout the year. He carries a few solid set wins, but none of it was enough for him to break into either HMs or the Top 25.

It can’t be stated enough that Smash 4 has entered a totally different era. I’ve found it very difficult to create personal rankings due to the number of factors present, and while I’m sure VoiD, Aba, and ANTi’s placements may be subject to ridicule, it’s important to understand a number of factors.

  • Common numbering schemes were generally based on an agreed upon set of upper echelon players.
  • This upper echelon has been disrupted heavily by the sudden presence of 15-20 ranked players from 2016 breaking into better positions in 2017.
  • As a result, any weak performances this year – especially in terms of set histories – are going to result in pretty big drop-offs.

I’m happy to discuss the elements further! Thanks for reading, and we’re excited to keep the ranking going throughout the year. We might have a mid-late year one, but if not, expect the big ranking at the end of December where all participants are scored and we create a Top 100!

 

 

Character Data – 2016-2017 – An Extensive Analysis.

Hi, I’m BarnardsLoop. Since early 2016, I’ve been compiling character results data. While I mostly stuck to Smashboards throughout 2016, I eventually started becoming more active in my reddit postings as of 2017 in an effort to get my data more exposure to the general public.

This is a master post of sorts – of all data that I’ve collected and long breakdowns of it, from March 15th, 2016 to April 30th, 2017. I will be analyzing several characters and their data on the roster, along with how much certain players contributed, and average points gained by characters per month.

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ORIONRANK – The Wrap Up & 2017 Qualification + Future

OrionRank has wrapped up, and now there’s a few things to go. I’ll be briefly covering some data uncovered during the ranking process regarding regions and characters, and I have a full, unabridged list of contenders, Hidden Bosses, and NEDs. In the case of “Contenders”, I have their final scores. These are the players who failed to make Top 100 and placed 101st to 175th.

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